Halving (or halving) is a process built into Bitcoin's code, whereby the block reward miners receive is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years). It's like Satoshi Nakamoto's built-in "anti-inflation switch": miners receive less BTC, meaning new issuance slows. It's all in keeping with the canons of digital gold.
Previously, the entire market was literally anticipating the halving. The crypto space has become more efficient, retail investors are following Twitter, and funds consider models like AI on steroids.
Miners used to be large sellers—they needed to cover costs, so they dumped BTC. Now, many have their hashrate distributed among large pools and hedged through derivatives. Plus, funds with fat wallets and ETFs have entered the market, and their interests are far more important than what miners are doing with the reward.
After the approval of spot ETFs in the US, the market became heavily dependent on capital flows into these products. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other big names drive up the price more than the halving. If they have a bad day, the price drops. Now the market is focusing on Fed interest rates, inflation, the dollar index, and geopolitics. Overall, the halving no longer plays as big a role as macroeconomic factors.
